Episode 31

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Published on:

22nd Mar 2024

Ep31: Can This One Thing Predict The EFL Championship Playoff Winners? Shows a 70% Correlation.

Attacking Efficiency Scatter Plot Charts

Playoff Success charts

In this episode we look at two different areas.

First David takes us through the different attacking strengths of the teams in the EFL Championship. We look at the expected goals scored and expected goals conceded for each team and see the data on one of David's famous scatter plot graphs.

This helps us see how strong their attack is compared to thier defensive performance. Are they a team with a strong attack and strong defense? Or are they weak in both attack and defense?

Because this is expected goals scored and conceded we will of course see the top teams and bottom teams where we'd expect to find them...... but who are the outliers? Who are the ones whose performance doesn't quite add up to their current league position.

Next we look to answer the question;

'Does past league performance help us predict the team that will get promoted through the playoffs?'

David did his magic as usual and found that the teams in the playoff positions at the end of the season who picked up the most points versus the top 10 teams in the division had a 70% correlation with getting promoted.

Who is that so far this season? Well you'll have to listen to find out.

Useful Links

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Youtube Channel

Championship Fans Group

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About the Podcast

Football Insights Academy Podcast

Turning Data Into Game-Changing Insights.

Welcome to The Football Insights Academy Podcast, the ultimate destination for football enthusiasts, aspiring analysts, scouts, and recruitment professionals who want to understand the beautiful game beyond what’s visible on match day. This podcast is dedicated to demystifying the world of football analytics, scouting, and recruitment while empowering listeners to elevate their understanding of the game.
Each episode is packed with:
Deep Dives into Playing Styles: Learn how teams operate on and off the ball with practical insights into identifying tactical frameworks, key player roles, and system dynamics.
Data-Driven Decision Making: Discover how to turn raw stats into actionable insights, with a focus on metrics that matter, from the now mainstream expected goals (xG), through progressive passes, and defensive duels to cutting edge off-ball metrics.
Player Evaluation & Recruitment: From uncovering hidden gems to identifying ‘appropriate’ players for specific roles and styles, we break down the process of effective scouting in a way that’s accessible to beginners and professionals alike.
Real-World Tools and Frameworks: Gain hands-on knowledge of platforms like Wyscout and actionable workflows to identify and evaluate talent using data, including exportable metrics and case studies.
Career Growth Tips: Learn how to get started or level up in football analysis, scouting, or recruitment with practical advice and career-focused strategies.
Designed for those serious about understanding football beyond the surface, the podcast covers everything from core concepts like team playing styles and counter-attacking overlays to advanced recruitment strategies that clubs need today. We also explore the latest trends in football analytics, share inspiring success stories, and provide actionable takeaways for professionals working (or aspiring to work) in the game.
Whether you’re a die-hard fan, a budding analyst, or a seasoned scout looking to sharpen your skills, The Football Insights Academy Podcast is your go-to resource for developing a deeper understanding of football and making smarter decisions in the world of scouting and recruitment.
Subscribe now and start your journey toward unlocking the game within the game!

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About your hosts

Thomas Butterfield

I'm a very approachable obsessive learner who is always interested in the stories of others, and how that information and experience can be used to help others move the needle of their life in a positive direction.

As a result of the work I do adults and younger people understand the importance of being an active participant in their own health.

The result of this is we at Elevate Health Chiropractic and Wellbeing are putting better educated individuals into the community who are making better health decisions for themselves and those they care for the most.
They move better, they eat better, they think better.

They Feel Better.

We are always looking to work with and help individuals and organisations who value their own health, that of their family, or their staff high enough to take that next step with Elevate Health, Chiropractic and Wellbeing.

David Bromley

For the last fifteen years I have applied my analytical, systems-evaluation and financial background to the football industry.

As a long-term student of the game I hold coaching badges from the English Football Association and am a certified member of the Professional Football Scouts Association.

I hold distinctions in the Prozone (STATS) Professional Performance Analysis/ Performance Data & Recruitment Certificates Levels 1,2 & 3 in addition to being an F.A. Registered Intermediary.

My experience in football has enabled me to view player recruitment from the 'sharp end' and allows me to tailor my service to meet clients' best interests.